Scottish Parliament Election 2021: What to Expect and When?

With the Scottish Parliament election around the corner, many are concerned what this will look like amidst the pandemic. Image by Steve Houghton-Burnett, Unsplash

The next Scottish Parliament election will take place this year on the 6 of May – so far as planned. Even if the election date does not change, voting will be different this year compared to previous years. The question is how will the voting system work and what can we expect?

As expected, 2021 will be a significant year in Scottish politics. The Scottish Parliament election and the SNP’s vision of a second independence referendum, promise a politically active year. It is still unforeseeable as to when the government will be able to ease lockdown restrictions entirely, but the next Scottish election is to take place in six weeks.

When the question arose about the possible delay of the election, the First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, said there was "no reason" why it should not go ahead.  She added:

“I think everybody would agree it’s really important that our democratic processes continue and that elections happen.”

But can this election be democratic and safe at the same time?

Unison, the largest trade union in the UK, has written a letter to the Local Government Secretary, Aileen Campbell, about their concerns of the Scottish election’s ‘democratic legitimacy’ in terms of health issues. The trade union pointed out safety factors, such as lack of social distancing, deep cleaning, and lack of ventilation.

The British Academy carried out research on how to hold elections safely and democratically. The study explains the challenges of the forthcoming elections, for example, the health risks of the workers at the polling places. Demographic data shows that most of the poll workers could develop severe symptoms if they get coronavirus. In the 2015 UK general election, the workers’ average age was over 53; 39 per cent of them were over 60, and more than 30 per cent were retired.

Other countries, such as Israel, Singapore, and South Korea, increased the safety measures at their polling stations while voting in different ways. Surgical masks, latex gloves, hand sanitiser and social distancing were mandatory in most places. In Israel, they raised medically supported polling stations for symptomatic voters and gave the staff full PPE to wear. Wearing PPE for an often 16-hour workday is not convenient, so if the government were to consider this solution, they would need to work in shifts. The study recommends Covid-19 tests before the election for poll workers.

Covid-19 will more than likely reform the traditions of election observations too. Observers are monitoring the electoral procedures, reporting any malpractice, and giving suggestions for future elections. Between 2006 and 2012, 70 per cent of the elections were observed by international observational bodies. The pandemic could change this practice because of the travel restrictions and social distancing. The study suggests four possible options for the observers: not observing at all, observing as usual or with expat staff, and observing virtually.

In November 2020, Holyrood passed an election bill to ensure the safeness of the polling places. The new legislation allows earlier postal vote applications, in case of higher demand. It also gives the power for ministers to extend the polling for more than one day. If the in-person voting is still impossible in May, the election will be conducted by an all-postal ballot. Under certain circumstances, the election could be postponed by up to six months. According to Scottish electoral officials, around two million people could vote by post, to decrease the traffic at the polling stations. The Electoral Commission warned that an all-postal ballot would cause delay.

Andy O’Neill, Head of the Electoral Commission, said even a six-month delay would not be enough for people to register to vote:

“Our key concern is six months seems awfully ambitious to get 3.4 million AVIs (personal indicators) from applicants which they would have to write, from a standing start, presumably in the first quarter of next year.”

The Commission also mentions the possible increase of invalid votes. They believe that 3-5 per cent of the ballots could be filled out incorrectly. They are also concerned about the turnout of the voters in areas hit by the coronavirus outbreak.

Last year, more than 4 million people registered for the Scottish election. As there will most likely be a surge in postal votes, all voters will receive an information leaflet by March from the Electoral Commission. Registration to vote is possible here, and to vote by post here.

According to an opinion poll, carried out by the Savanta ComRes consultancy, the SNP could win a record majority. The poll, carried out in January, also showed that 57 per cent would vote for independence in a possible new referendum. Six weeks before the planned date - crucial questions need to be answered. How will campaigning take place? Can we rely on the vaccination progress? And finally, why it is so important for Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP to hold the election in May?