Tension in Ukraine: Is war With Russia Imminent?
Amid the continuing farce of Downing Street work events and cake ambushes, a far more serious situation has continued to brew on Europe’s eastern frontier, with fears of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine continuing to grow with 100,000 of its troops massed on Ukraine’s border.
Hours after the Metropolitan Police announced an investigation into the litany of lockdown breaking parties, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson issued a statement to parliament about a potential Russian invasion, gravely suggesting that “if Russia pursues this path, many Russian mothers’ sons will not be coming home.”
Johnson also added that the UK would be prepared to send troops to Ukraine saying: "The British Army leads the Nato battle group in Estonia and, if Russia invades Ukraine, we would look to contribute to any new Nato deployments to protect our allies in Europe."
Such grim language highlights just how serious the situation is, as Russian deployment of military forces towards the border of Ukraine prompts Nato – the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation – members to send what is euphemistically called “lethal” aid to the Ukrainian military, further fuelling Russian mistrust of the alliance. Indeed, Ukrainian armed forces have doubled in size since the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014. Russian backed separatists of the eastern Donbas also took control of much of the region.
Why is this happening? After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine declared its independence in 1991, cultivating closer ties to the west. Many former Soviet republics such as Estonia, Lithuania, and the Czech Republic – who were all previously members of the Warsaw Pact military alliance established by the Soviet Union in 1955 - joined Nato in 1997. While Ukraine itself is not a Nato member – it is a “partner country” – Russian President Vladimir Putin has long claimed that Nato intends to encircle Russia, allegedly breaking Western assurances of no eastern expansion, something which Nato has always denied.
Russian demands that Ukraine never join Nato and the removal of troops from former Soviet controlled Eastern European countries have led to an impasse, with neither side yet willing to back down, heightening fears of war breaking out.
The situation around Ukraine is becoming ever more serious. Here’s 5 minutes on the long and short-term reasons why this is happening. Currently second ‘most watched’ on the @BBCNews website. Produced by Catherine Karelli. pic.twitter.com/L1rckenGhz
— Ros Atkins (@BBCRosAtkins) January 25, 2022
Putin is on record as saying that he sees Ukraine as historically Russian, saying in a statement last year that “Russians and Ukrainians were one single people – a single whole,” despite the fact that many Ukrainian’s are ready to “actively resist” a Russian invasion. In the aftermath of the Euromaidan protests that engulfed the country in 2014 (which led to the Kremlin-backed President Viktor Yanukovych fleeing to Russia), Russia launched its campaigns in the eastern Donbas region and Crimea.
The situation has only been exacerbated by the perceived weakness of western institutions, particularly in the aftermath of political events such as the election of Donald Trump as US President and Brexit in 2016, both of which involved accusations of Russian meddling, while also raising awkward questions for the UK’s Tory government.
The disastrously botched US retreat from Afghanistan and the end of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s premiership has also been cited as reasons for renewed Russian assertiveness. Merkel was raised in Soviet controlled East Germany (where Putin was posted as a young KGB operative in the 1980s) and can speak Russian, thus was often seen as perhaps the only western leader that could establish a relatively cordial relationship with Putin.
Indeed, Putin’s relationship with US President Joe Biden has never been friendly, Biden having once called the Russian president a “killer.” In a further sign of the frosty relations between the two Presidents, Biden has threatened Putin with “personal sanctions” should Russia invade.
However, while many believe that war is “inevitable,” Ukrainian leaders have also been keen to urge people to remain calm and that war is not a fait accompli. In a televised address to the nation, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “We are strong enough to keep everything under control and derail any attempts at destabilization.”
Ukrainian’s have lived with the fear of further Russian aggression for the last eight years but the fear now is that a Russian invasion may spark a wider conflict should a peaceful resolution not be found.